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Best of John May

Gaming Guru

 

Popular Fallacies That Aren't - Part 2

3 February 2003

Some notions gamblers have about gambling are both common and completely misguided.

These ideas often have a basis in truth, however, though the connection between the idea and the reality is often tenuous.

Lets look at idea of quitting while ahead.

The reasoning is: You are certain to be ahead at some point during a session. Quitting whenever you are ahead therefore guarantees you will never lose.

The fallacy is: You can actually never be ahead and still lose. It is unlikely in any one session, but over a number of sessions it will happen eventually. On this one losing session you will lose back all your winnings.

Exceptions: At blackjack quitting while ahead is not such a bad thing, because a series of wins is more likely to be a result of being dealt good cards (aces and tens) than not. This means that bad cards, on average, dominate the remaining pack and you have more of a disadvantage than normal. However, this effect is not strong enough to be a winning strategy by itself and will not forestall that eventual killer losing session.

John May
John May is one of the most feared gamblers in the world. He has developed "advantage play" techniques for many games that are considered unbeatable.

Books by John May:

> More Books By John May

John May
John May is one of the most feared gamblers in the world. He has developed "advantage play" techniques for many games that are considered unbeatable.

Books by John May:

> More Books By John May